The 6th Extinction: A Sigma Force Novel

The consensus among experts is that we are indeed on the brink of the next great mass extinction, one to rival the asteroid strike that wiped out the dinosaurs. Every hour, three more species goes extinct, totaling to 30,000 species a year. Already we’ve lost ½ of all amphibians, ¼ of all mammals, and 1/3 of all reefs.

The last 5 extinctions were caused by natural causes, like massive volcanic eruptions or asteroid strikes. Only this time, WE are that asteroid. After the arrival of man (ANTHROPOCENE—human epoch), the loss of species escalated to 1000 time—some say as much as 10,000 times–that of the natural extinction rate: mostly due to pollution, urbanization, and the global spread of invasive species. So it’s up to us to stop it. “We Homo sapiens act as though we believe we are invincible,” Kolbert writes, “but we’re putting ourselves at risk of obliteration.”

Scientific American estimates we have one or two generations to turn this tide before we go over the proverbial cliff.

All of the past extinctions have been caused by natural catastrophes:

But it was the third that was the worst—and it’s significant. A volcanic eruption during the Permian period (250 million years ago) cast huge clouds of carbon dioxide into the air, causing a greenhouse effect and acidifying the oceans. We’re seeing the same environmental disruption today—and facing the same catastrophic event.

That Permian extinction knocked out 90% of the world’s species on land and in the seas went extinct, all life balanced on a razor’s edge. It’s only by sheer providence or luck that all life wasn’t extinguished. And we’re headed that way again.

Scientific American estimates we have about 1-2 generations to turn this around. Failing that, we’ll reach the point of no return. As to what can be done, there are very different schools of thought, often in conflict with each other. But it’s up to us.

I love this line by Stewart Brand, the publisher of Whole Earth Catalog:
“We are as gods and have to get good at it.”

On one side there are the conservationists or preservationists, what some refer to as “old-school environmentalism.”

On the other side, there are the geneticists and synthetic biologists who believe we can engineer our way out of this extinction. Right or wrong, this is where a majority of the young scientists are using genetic manipulation and the creation of synthetic life to re-engineer the world.

This is reintroduction of keystone species into an environment. Such as the reintroduction of wolves to Yellowstone National Park. It had a dramatic and positive effect on the entire ecosystem. Wolves reduced the number of deer, which allowed overgrazed lands to recover, which allowed trees to grow thicker and taller, which supported increased populations of birds, which has supported a general recovery of biological diversity in the park.

So close, they’ve coined a term for it: DE-Extinction. Researchers could take the intact genome of a living animal—then start making edits and alterations to the DNA, slowing converting it to the genome of a related species that had gone extinct. There are active projects going on all around the world toward this end: Like resurrecting the wooly mammoth from Elephant DNA.

Considering the fact that the cost of lab equipment and materials has been plummeting for years. What once cost tens of thousands of dollars can be done for pennies now. Even the pace of our ability to read and write DNA increases ten fold every year…which means in ten short years, genetic engineering could be ten billion times faster.

Already a lab has managed to create the first synthetically built cell (2010, Craig Venter). And just last year, biologists engineered an artificial chromosome, building a functional, living yeast from scratch.

But the most astounding advances are two techniques known as EVOLUTION MACHINES.
First is CRISPR-CAS9 technique. With little training, a novice could perform this genetic manipulation technique. The precision of this control has been described as offering researchers the equivalent tool to editing individual letters of an encyclopedia—without making a spelling error.

Second is MAGE AND CAGE (multiplex automated genome engineering and conjugative assembly genome engineering ) discovered by genetic engineers from Yale, MIT, and Harvard. It allows large-scale edits to a genome. It’s this process that holds great promise to revive extinct species or create NEW ones. They could introduce millions of years of evolution within minutes.

In garages, attics, and local community centers, homegrown genetics labs are sprouting up everywhere. For a small price, you can learn to do your own genetic experiments, even patent your creations.  The cyberpunks of the 90s have become the biopunks of today:  Only now they’re hacking into genetic code instead of computer codes.

Today teams of high-school students modify organisms for the iGEM competition, using a library of over 20,000 biological parts made of DNA sequences (promoters, translaters, ends, spacers, vectors, receivers), called BIO BRICKS.  Sort of a plug-and-play version of genetic manipulation.  Some have referred to the introduction of Biobricks, as a genetic toolbox for playing god in your own backyard.
The recent winners were a group of Slovenia students who genetically modified e.coli to produce a vaccine against a bacterium that causes stomach ulcers.  “These are kids—high school kids.

At the moment, the government depends on self-policing of these grassroots labs.  Their worry:  With the emergence of synthetic biology and the availability of equipment…the barrier to mischief is getting lower and lower.

But it’s not just the backyard labs:

Since 9/11, there’s been a huge spike in biodefense spending, resulting in a slew of new Level-4 labs popping up across the country. Corporate-funded, government-backed, university-run. These labs are dealing with the worst of the worst, agents that have no vaccine or cure:  Like Ebola, Marburg, Lassa fever.
Right now there are some fifteen thousand scientists authorized to work with deadly pathogens, but there are zero federal agencies charged with assessing the risks of all of these labs, let alone even keeping track of their number. As a consequence, there’ve been countless reports of mishandling of contagious pathogens, of vials gone missing, of poor records.

And it’s not just “accidental” releases that worry homeland security: homeland security’s greatest fear is how vulnerable U.S. labs were to foreign agents. A terrorist organization could easily insert a graduate student or postdoctoral fellow into one of these bioweapon facilities, either to obtain a deadly pathogen or to get the necessary training to run their own labs.

I came upon a fascinating interview of ecologist Craig Thomas in New Scientist, where he espouses a new philosophical way of looking at extinction:  basically as an opportunity. That a great extinction could lead to new and exciting life forms, new pathways for evolution, even creating a New Eden. It’s a fascinating alternate way of looking at this Sixth Extinction.

“If nature can bounce back from an asteroid hit, it can bounce back from us.”